Author Archives: Iceberg Research

Once again, Noble’s managers are lying. This shameless restructuring plan is not the only option for Noble’s stakeholders.

Three years ago, we published a series of reports on Noble group. Our thesis at that time was that Noble, like Enron, was hiding billions of losses by creating fake assets. Many investors chose to believe this company, its auditor, the credit agencies that didn’t see any issue with the huge fair values, and the […]

A Bad Restructuring Plan that Noble’s Creditors should reject

Debtwire announced that Noble Group may be nearing a deal to restructure its $3.5b debt with a debt-to-equity swap. Noble subsequently clarified that no agreement has been reached yet. If and when a deal is reached, creditors will have to approve it. This will not be straightforward as their interests strongly diverge. For example, the […]

Open Letter to Noble Group’s Creditors

Dear Noble Group’s Creditors, It is fair to say that your investment journey with Noble Group has been a tumultuous one. You probably feel nauseous after the months spent on this ship. Noble was a very large and diversified commodity trader with revenue of $86b. It was rated investment grade by three credit agencies. Now, […]

Tibet Water (1115.HK): Where is the Beer?

We initiate coverage on Tibet Water Resources Ltd (HKG.1115). 请参见下方的中文报告 Our main findings include: – Tibet Water is the most profitable brewer in the world, but we struggled to find its beer products in Tibet although the region represents 98% of its sales in the beer segment. – The brewery is mainly an OEM that […]

Noble Group is Sinking. This Saga reveals the Complete Failure of the Regulators in Singapore.

“I just want to let you know that Noble has not changed; the character, the high degree of morality, the respect, the honesty and all the positive things that built Noble are still in place and are being reinforced on a daily basis.” Richard Elman, Founder and former Chairman of Noble Group – 11 June […]

Noble Group: How Many Times Can You Fool the Same People?

The multi-year quest for a “strategic” investor Here we go again. Noble is in early talks with an investor to potentially acquire a stake in Noble, and the share price surged following the news. Sounds familiar? Probably because this already happened a few times. Eighteen months ago (August 2015), Reuters reported that Noble was considering raising funds […]

Tutor Perini: Structural Issues Underestimated by the Market

Iceberg initiates coverage on Tutor Perini (TPC). The company’s issues are not restricted to the “unbilled”. Tutor Perini has an impressive number of structural problems that, we believe, are underestimated by the market. Summary of findings: Tutor Perini (“Tutor”) is a $1.5b market cap company, but it has recorded only $3m in operating cash flow (“OCF”) […]

Dismissal of Noble Group’s CEO, Yusuf Alireza

Mr Alireza was recruited by Noble Group four years ago after he left Goldman Sachs. His first day as CEO of this large physical trader was his first day in the commodity business. The learning curve has been a particularly painful experience for the company’s shareholders: the share price fell by 76%. Noble dramatically underperformed the […]


1) The new unsecured revolving credit facility is offered at a very high 350 bps all-in. Banks have dramatically reassessed the counterparty risk of Noble after the company finally started to face the reality, recognized long overdue impairments and booked a loss of $1.7b as a result. The commodity industry is a low margin business. […]

“Rumour and gossip”

Noble Group’s chairman, Mr. Elman, recently declared “Last year, we had to separate our business from rumour and gossip”. In April, our reports were already described as “inaccurate, unreliable and misleading”, and Mr. Elman proclaimed that the “Iceberg issue is finished”. After months of denial and defiant tone, the market does not pay attention anymore. […]