Iceberg Research


American Resources Corporation ($AREC): Digging Deeper into Investors’ Pockets

We are short $AREC, a fatal combination of self dealing transactions, low quality mining assets, promotional tactics, and highly stressed liquidity.

Quantum Computing Inc. ($QUBT): On its way to vacuum state

The quantum industry may exist one day but the future is bleak for $QUBT.

Lilium’s misrepresentations over its technology keep mounting

We asked Prof. Volker Gollnick, an aeronautics expert, to review Lilium’s white paper. His conclusions on batteries, noise, technology, etc are very negative.


How Singapore’s regulators have failed Noble’s investors and shielded the fraudsters

Our opinion on the non-prosecution of Noble’s fraudsters

Victoria Plc ($VCP.LN): Mites under the Rug

Because of an audit that appears to be lacking, worries over the integrity of financial statements, and Chairman Geoff Wilding’s past, we are short Victoria Plc.  



Battery Claims: How Lilium ($LILM) Takes its Investors for a Ride

Our follow-up report on Lilium

Lilium NV ($LILM) – The Losing Horse in the eVTOL Race 

The German eVTOL has chosen the wrong technology in a very competitive race.


Hyzon Unleashes a Load of Hot Air with its 3Q21 Results

We investigate the highly suspicious guidance for 2021 based on a Chinese customer, how Hyzon tried to hide its relationship with Raven, and the prospects of hydrogen trucks vs battery trucks.



Hyzon Motors Inc ($HYZN): Trouble at the ParentCo

The bull case for Hyzon is supported by its parent company, Singapore-based Horizon. But Horizon failed to disclose that its largest customer was in default, amongst other issues. Here are our findings.

Diginex ($EQOS): Inconsistent Data Point to Massive Trading Volume Manipulation

In this new report, we review Diginex’s trading volumes and its executives’ background.

Diginex Ltd ($EQOS): A Crypto Zero

As a short-seller, we have always dreamed of a company that would put the three words “SPAC, crypto, and Singapore” in the same sentence. Enter Diginex.

EOS Energy ($EOSE) Has Just Admitted it Lied About its Contracts

What was presented as “orders” before our first report has now become “contract negotiation“.

EOS Energy ($EOSE): Fake Customers won’t Recharge a Dead Battery

We are short $EOSE, a battery energy storage systems (“BESS”) SPAC with a failed technology and dubious customers. 90% downside.

What Really Killed Nyrstar NV? Shareholders Have A Strong Case Against Nyrstar’s Board And Trafigura

We examine the very strange circumstances that led to Nyrstar’s restructuring. We believe Trafigura is on the hook for potentially hundreds of millions.

Trafigura Ignores Market Prices to Fabricate Profit and Hides Sizeable Losses on Its Balance Sheet

In this report, we describe how Trafigura uses an infamous loophole to massively overvalue assets and create fake profit.

Message to Noble Group’s Current and Past Securities Holders

The many Noble’s securities shareholders who are shocked by this scandalous restructuring are invited to contact us. Law firms we talked to are ready to challenge Noble’s scheme and start litigation to obtain a better recovery. We explain their legal options here. 

Questions to Noble Group’s Management for the Q1 2018 Conf Call

‏We publish our questions to Noble’s management before its Q1 2018 conf call.

Dead Men Walking, an open letter by Michael Dee

Iceberg Research publishes an open letter on Noble, written by Michael Dee, ex-CEO of Morgan Stanley South East Asia.

Once Again, Noble’s Managers Are Lying. This Shameless Restructuring Plan Is Not the Only Option for Noble’s Stakeholders.

In this important report, we explain that:
– the plan is not financially viable
– obtaining the legal release from liability appears as the true objective
– we urge stakeholders to vote against Noble’s proposal and we submit alternatives
– lawsuits are the best chance of recovery for Noble’s stakeholders.
– we debunk Noble’s arguments used to scare their stakeholders

A Bad Restructuring Plan that Noble’s Creditors should reject

Our comments on a poorly negotiated outline.

Open Letter to Noble Group’s creditors

We published an open letter to Noble Group’s creditors.

We warn the creditors that:
1) the plan proposed by Noble won’t work.
2) it does not address the reasons why this company collapsed.
3) a radical change in culture and management is the only way to potentially save this company.

Tibet Water (1115.HK): Where is the Beer?

We initiate coverage on Tibet Water Resources Ltd (HKG.1115).

This company shows all the signs of financial fraud: profitability that does not make sense for what is fundamentally an OEM business, inexplicable cost structure, high debt while the company is cash rich…

Noble Group is Sinking. This Saga reveals the Complete Failure of the Regulators in Singapore.

Our latest update on the Noble crisis and the role of the regulators in Singapore.

Noble Group: How Many Times Can You Fool the Same People?

Our update on Noble’s tough quest for an investor, the alternative facts on its crisis, and how the same managers who created this fiasco still run the company.

Tutor Perini: Structural Issues Underestimated by the Market

Iceberg initiates coverage on Tutor Perini (TPC). The company’s issues are not restricted to the “unbilled”. Tutor Perini has an impressive number of structural problems that, we believe, are strongly underestimated by the market. Our report is available here.

Dismissal of Noble Group’s CEO, Yusuf Alireza

Our comments are available here.

Questions to Noble’s Management ahead of its April 14TH AGM

We listed our questions before Noble’s AGM on April 14th.

Fourth Report on Noble: How Credibility Collapsed

Our fourth Report on Noble Group is available. PDF here.


“Rumour and gossip”

Before we publish our fourth report on Noble, we review the status of our main arguments to see if really this was only “rumour and gossip” as Noble’s chairman, Richard Elman, recently described them.

Downgrade of Noble Group to junk by credit agencies

With the downgrade to junk and the structural lack of confidence in current management, Noble’s crisis is more acute every day.

Comments on the projected Agri stake sale

Once again the same old accounting tricks are used by Noble.

Comments on Noble’s 9M results

Our comments are available here.

Comments on the PwC review and Noble’s Q2 results

Our comments are available here.

Update on Noble Group (July 21st)

Confidence in Noble is clearly eroding. We explain why the “assurance review” conducted by PwC will not answer the market’s questions. The only hope is a miraculous white knight. Finding one will be a tough job. Our update here.

Questions ahead of Noble’s annual general meeting held on April 17th

We listed our main questions. Please click here.

Third Report on Noble Group, a repeat of Enron: Governance, Debt and Liquidity Headroom

We released our third report. Please click here.

Our comments on FY2014 results and Noble’s rebuttals

We released our comments on Noble’s FY2014 results. We also dissipate the smoke screen covering Noble’s fair values. Please click here.

Second Report on Noble Group, a repeat of Enron: Fair values and Operating Cash Flows

Iceberg Research released its second report on Noble Group.

Summary of findings:

Click here to download and print the second report: Report 2- Fair values and OCFc

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Iceberg’s comments on the SGX Announcement made by Noble Group on 17 February 2015

In our report, we wrote that the $603m valuation gap for Yancoal is an accounting loophole. It may be formally acceptable from an auditors point of view but it is unreasonable from an investors point of view. We think Yancoal is a straightforward issue. Noble should recognise the $603m impairment (in particular on the $100m paper profit booked in 2012), record the loss, and move on. If Noble thinks that the share price of Yancoal is massively undervalued, the group should increase its ownership percentage.

We maintain that Noble misled the market about the performance of Agri. For example, Noble has not explained why depreciation fell and why Agri’s interest expenses were subsidised by the rest of the group. The really important question is: will Noble disclose the final price paid by COFCO, AND any remaining financial commitment related to this transaction? We have not been able to consult the Agri share sale agreement that was made available to the public in the Bermuda office.

PT Pusaka Agro Lestari’s plantation business licence and a right of cultivation are in order. Our point is that the local government seems to think otherwise. Indonesia has a rather unpredictable legal environment. The political tensions associated to PT PAL will complicate the sale process. However, according to Noble, PT PAL represents only 20-25% of the palm activity, and any future profits or losses incurred upon the sale of the palm assets will be shared equally between Noble and the COFCO led consortium. We will adjust impairments and valuation accordingly.

We did not approach the group to address our concerns because we did not want to alert insiders. We also note that Noble has not answered seven of the eight questions asked at the end of our first report.

Iceberg does not hold any position, long or short, whether directly or indirectly, in Noble’s securities.

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Noble Group: a Repeat of Enron – First Report

Iceberg Research initiates coverage on Noble Group, a large commodity trader listed in Singapore, ranked number 76 in the 2014 Fortune Global 500 with revenue of $98b, market cap of $6b, and rated investment grade (BBB-/Baa3).

We show how Noble uses accounting loopholes, or aggressive accounting, in every component of its financials (income statement, balance sheet, cash flows). Noble intentionally misleads credit agencies and investors. The auditor, Ernst and Young, is well aware of the situation. The financial similarities between Noble and the defunct commodity trader Enron are striking (e.g. overvalued assets, contracts fair values, working capital management, debt presentation). The investment grade rating is definitely not justified. We estimate Noble’s equity is less than $360m (from a reported $5.6b) after the various impairments we list in this series of reports. On a price-to-book basis, the value of Noble’s shares is conservatively valued at a mere ten Singapore cents (a 92% fall from the current share price).

The three parts of our research are:

  1. Associates and Noble Agri
  2. Fair values (Continuing operations) and operating cash flows
  3. Real level of debt (gross and net), so-called “liquidity headroom”, auditor and governance

At this date, Iceberg Research does not have any long/short position in Noble’s securities (neither directly nor indirectly) and does not work in tandem with funds.

First Report: Associates and Noble Agri

Summary of findings:

Click here to download and print the first report: Report 1 Associates and Agri-15022015

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